Tuesday, July 1, 2014

How bad is the ROI for solar PV power in India?

How bad is the ROI for solar PV power in India?
KRS Murthy

The ROI term is used by many novices and experts, not understanding what it means.

My statements and analysis apply only to India, solar panel installation, current interest rates in India or the market discount rates, with or without storage, and most importantly the sunny part of India.
  1. Solar radiation assumption: 5 kWh to 6 kWH ( which has a 20 percent spread)
  2. The grid utility is NOT available all the time, with X number of hours per day with NO electricity
  3. The alternative is diesel, so the diesel price and generator capital expenditure amortized + operational / maintenance budget added every month or year.
  4. Storage is needed for (24 - 6) hours minimum and (24 - 5) hours typically.
  5. Rainy and cloudy days will need 24 to 48 hours minimum storage capacity, with occasional storage requirements for 72 to 120 hours
  6. The solar panels have to produce the total 24 to 48 hours worth of power needs of the residential or small business installations.
  7. Example: 
    1. If the average daily power consumption is 1kW X 24 = 24 kW, assuming average hourly consumption of 1kWh, the total solar panel capacity should be 24 kWh divided by 6 hours = 4 kWh production every hour.
    2. However, the power produced is zero at sunrise and slowly increases and peaks at about noon, further going down to zero at sunset.
    3. Therefore, to produce a total of 24 kWh during the 5 or 6 hours of the sun, the house or business really needs the number of solar panels to produce a peak of 10 kW to 15 kW, depending on the location of the application on the globe, to maximize for the different seasons of the year.
    4. The total storage capacity for the batteries should be 24 kWh to 120 kWh, depending on the need for reliability and availability of power.
    5. Important: Need of solar panels specified by peak power at the peak usage requirements in a day over the year.
    6. Because of the sun's direct incident light and solar intensity varying from zero to daily peak, the solar panels need to be sized, much higher than most or all current installations.
    7. The example assumes hourly average of power requirement over the day and over the year of only 1kWh, proportionate multiplication is needed for all calculations.
    8. For example,typical 2000 sq ft home in USA needs to be specified at 3kWh  and peak of 5kWh, the investment and all ROI calculation should be made by multiplying by 3 or 5.
    9. Total installed cost of the solar panels to deliver the peak load + invertor + controllers + cabling + storage and any control panels + installation costs should be used for ROI.
    10. The discount rates, based on cost of capital, are for higher in India compared to USA. Currently, Indian interest rates are very high at 12% or more. In USA, it is less than 3% or 4%. The ratio between Indian interests and rates in USA are 3 to 4 times. 
    11. The interest rate burden is very high in India, many times making the economics of ROI very bad.
  8. Please note that have not used the cost of land, training, labor productivity etc. in our calculations.
  9. Please contact me for detailed discussions of specific business investments in solar
Dr. KRS Murthy   Dr.Sri.Murthy@Gmail.Com   (408)-464-3333

Friday, February 14, 2014

Biggest Solar Mistakes

Biggest Solar Mistakes

KRS Murthy

Biggest mistakes have been committed in many technologies, industries and projects in many countries and continents. Solar, the particular way big multi billion dollar contracts are issued by governments for all the wrong reasons to the most undeserving companies is not just a joke on encouraging incompetence, and especially also as the favoritism is always political and not technocracy nor meritocracy.

Look at the coverage by reporters of NY Times, who probably are neither technically qualified, nor objective. Just being able to write in English does not qualify these writers to get such high profile jobs in famous publications.

Why do they not take the advice of real experts? Probably because they just don't care. They media executives, do not seem to know the disservice they are doing to the readers / viewers and the nation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/business/energy-environment/a-big-solar-plant-opens-facing-doubts-about-its-future.html?ref=energy-environment

The basic problems with the technology referred to in the article:
  1. The mirror arrays based technology is very old, nothing new about it
  2. The efficiency per acre or per square mile is very poor.
  3. Cost per Mega Watt Installed is very high
  4. Cost per Mega Watt Hour of electricity produced is very high
  5. Operations and maintenance is very high
  6. Mirror tracking costs are ridiculously high
  7. Storage is another big issue.
  8. Similar installations have been done and later torn down in not only Mojave desert, but also in Spain and other locations, as it was realized not to be economical.
  9. These contracts are given to reward election campaign donors in USA
  10. Similar issues of bribes to elected officials in India
  11. Even China has done similar mistakes.
  12. Lesson: Meritocracy in the dictionary should be titled under "Joke" category, true for all parts of the world.
I am ready to discuss and debate on this topic, as needed.

You may read about me in the links below:
Dr. KRS Murthy
ICubed.Murthy@Gmail.Com
BigDataExpert@Gmail.Com
(408)-464-3333
Skype: drkrsmurthy

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Big Data Strategy National Emergency

Big Data Strategy National Emergency
KRS Murthy


NOTE: I am sure that I have appropriately titled this particular blog. It is really alarming and high time that our country leaders take this seriously. Please read on, act on it and contact me for any discussion.

The Big Data Strategy is not limited to a particular company or enterprise one or few products or services. Conglomerates may have multiple product lines or lines of businesses made up of many business units, related or unrelated. Big data strategy could be in silos if the businesses of the conglomerate are not related. For mutually related business units, an integrated strategy would be appropriate.

Industry or vertical wide big data strategy would apply for industry associations with many companies in that industry are members. The big data strategy would encompass issues and commonalities between the member companies of the industry association.

A national level or state / province level big data strategy is very important to ensure the prudent big data policies drive the big data strategy. It would also be helpful to revisit the national, state or province level strategy from big data perspective.

Let us take examples of national or state / province level big data strategy. For example, energy department in a country like USA needs big data strategy, to leverage and exploit to the full extent the immense power of big data, not only in the legacy energy technologies and infrastructure, and surely in alternative or green technologies. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) in the energy generation, transmission and surely in the distribution segments, fully incorporating smart grid features with monitoring devices in residences, commercial buildings, industrial buildings and also military building and campuses. WSN embedding is pertinent in outdoor lighting, street lighting and lighting in highways, freeways, parks, airports etc.

The WSN would generate data every minute, hour, day, week, month and the whole year, needing big data methodologies to derive the best value for prudent actionable and decision knowledge.

Similarly, the state / province and national departments where big data strategy would be needed include: Department of Transportation, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of the Interior, Department of Commerce, the intelligence agencies like CIA and FBI, the difference defense departments, Department of Education, Homeland Security, Department of Finance, Department of Treasury, the list too long to list them all.

Whether it is for a company or enterprise, industry vertical, state or national agencies and departments, the strategic approach would always start at policy level. Big data policy may be revisited, 
and from it big data procedures are developed, trickling logically down to processes at different levels. A reverse big data value chain analysis from processes up to procedures and further up to policies would also be appropriate. Each big data policy item may generate and demand multiple big data procedures pertinent to different business units, departments and functional entities. For example, the human resources, finance and accounting, the supply chain, purchase, inventory, shipping, R&D, engineering, manufacturing and assembly, marketing, sales and business development, customer service and field operations would derive and conform to higher level big data processes and procedures in terms of big data value. Even the ISO and other industry standard compliance would have big data dimension or aspect to them.

Industry wide supply chain dependency should have, along with supply chain standards compliance and bench marking, big data strategy, procedures and processes fully integrated and monitored, measured and bench marked with continuous improvement leveraging and exploiting on the big data power.

Big data fully integrated at strategy, policy procedure and processes, when prudently and diligently implemented and exploited will be pivotal for national competitiveness.

Big data has the power to help exhaustively utilize every point of monitoring, measurement, trending, decision making, control and continuous improvement, which exhaustiveness never existed in the human technological history.

I would urge companies, enterprises, industry verticals, industry associations and governments quickly build their big data capability and infrastructure, or else they may be left behind. Even countries not in the international technological league can benefit from the big data revolution.

Training many types of big data professionals is the way to lay the foundation for countries to enter and competitively move ahead t the international level. To be able to have enough big data workforce to encompass all aspects and functions is also very important, because a proper balance to cover all professional categories needed in big data implementation is very vital and prudent.

To be able to conceive, design, develop and market variety of big data computing, processing, manipulation, streaming and staging, storage, querying, statistical tool development and augmentation, data science, business intelligence analysis, visualization, networking and communication for synchronous and asynchronous processes would require professionals of different technology skills and expertise, at the same time business, management and support professionals properly trained for their respective professions and functions.

Today, focus is mostly on developers, coders, data base professionals and architects. The companies, industries, industry associations, states, provinces and nations seem to be limited to a small section of the needed talent development. The primary reason is that most companies, industries and governments do not understand big data technology, tools, needed professionals, training and continuing education, especially strategic level.

Country like USA needs a Big Data Chief Information Officer (CIO) and Big Data Chief Strategy Officer (CSO). USA can not repeat appointing novices for these types of very important positions, as it has done in the recent years. To be a CIO or CSO requires decades track record in similar functions. Especially to be a CIO or CSO at USA country level, the person needs track record at large enough level to merit being and functioning at national level. Appointing poorly qualified and intellectually ill equipped individuals driven only by political motivation surely indicates lack of vision at decision making level, as viewed internationally.

As most of the appointments at many levels in USA are politically motivated and big posts are politically appointed, with very little regard to experience, wisdom and track record, I am particularly afraid that USA will miss the boat again in big data, as it has already missed areas like manufacturing, automobiles and alternation energy, finance and banking, as only examples, becoming completely and irrevocably dependent on China. Similar dependency, even though to a much lesser extent is true for software outsourcing to India, including many vital software and business process functions.

The educational institutions, at school, college, university levels and also the Department of Education need to act urgently to train students, along with a supplemental continuing education program, large number of professionals in the areas already listed by me. Based on my initial high level estimate, I strongly feel that the universities need to act very fast, as the man power requirement to fill the big data professionals needed is so large that USA may lag behind, and living a void for other countries to fill them, thus further increasing dependence of USA on other countries.

I am currently estimating the required number of trained professionals for different categories.

I will be open to co-opting team members in this estimating endeavor.

Please contact me at: (408)-464-3333 bigdataexpert@gmail.comexpertboardadviser@gmail.com or ICubed.Murthy@Gmail.com

Video Game Delivered Education and E-Learning

Video Game Delivered Education and E-Learning

With the ever changing world, explosion of new content that students and learners of all ages across the world have to quickly and effectively learn with limited time on their hand, it is high time that educationists develop perfect fit modes and platforms, for curricular and lifelong learning have changed very little since most of us were students. The academic institutions starting from preschool though high school, college and university that prepare professionals and scholars in all vocations have changed very little. Even continuing and lifelong education which need to keep up with fast changing professional and industrial demands for keeping up with new manufacturing and service industry work environments have essentially changed very little. The curricular modes of teaching and tools, and surely the education environment have stayed unchanged for many decades.

Our attention spans have reduced to minutes, not hours. We all know that attention grabbing modes of learning, and even the life experiences, are impacting, impressionistic, and automatically get stored in our brains for long term and even in permanent memories. Recall rates and efficiency are significantly higher for things experienced and learned during attention grabbing moments and events in our life.

In addition, if the moments and events are fun and enjoyable, the learning is even more at fundamental levels. As the author Dr. KRS Murthy always says, “Fun stimulates and prepares our brain mentally for fundamental learning and thinking”.

Another attention grabbing mode in our brain is when faced with challenge. Challenge requires utmost focus; Education and learning also requires a lot of focus. Thus, when an environment of challenge is created, learning happens automatically. Challenge also triggers creativity. Surprisingly, most of the curricular education in schools, colleges and universities is not challenging on the creativity, innovation and originality for the syudent. Text books, class rooms and other aspects and techniques in our academic institutions are very much 'boring” and not interactive. Teaching is mostly like preaching, telling and enforcing the students that there is one and only way to learn.

Interactivity is a rare phenomenon in current and archaic education institutions. Interactivity validates, verifies and reinforces positively the information, knowledge, techniques and tools that we learn. Interactivity also helps us to be creative. Being social animals, learning interactively is very innate and natural to all of us. As infants and kids, we learned everything interactively from toys. We interacted with our parents, siblings and friends as kids, boys and girls that made learning many things in life so natural that we may have to think back to realize that most of life and social skills were learned interactively.


In order to excel, competition is vital. We all need to compete peers. We need to compete as a group or team with other groups and teams. Most importantly we need to compete with ourselves, in order to continuously improve, either incrementally or sometimes even in large steps.


As teams, we learn to cooperate with each other in the team, in order to compete and win against another team. Cooperation builds trust, reinforcement, role playing and work or responsibility sharing.

If we summarize the key points of the previous paragraphs, the following are the keys to effective education and learning for all ages: attention, fun, challenge, interactivity, competition and cooperation.

Video Games based Education

There are many ways, tools and techniques to integrate these keys into education and lifelong learning. One of the most effective and holistically integration fit platforms are video games. Video games based education and other online, mobile and offline e-learning, when appropriately adapted holistically lend themselves many needs for education, formal, informal and lifelong.

Dr. KRS Murthy is available for Key Note and featured talks. His presentation expounds the advantages, substantiating the perfect fit of video games for design with built in education contents or adapting and re-purposing them for education vertical. The author argues that the most important advantage of a gaming platform to use in education and e-learning vertical is that the video games are inherently engaging, highly interactive, a personal experience, very relaxing and fun to the players, which places the players minds in an excited mental state, making it the best opportunity to strategically embed education contents. In such a unique frame of mind, the player is playing the game to win, yet enjoying the challenge. That frame of mind is also the best suited to learn, not just passively as in reading a book, but actively learn. The frame of mind is also the best to remember the educational contents presented to the player.

The author has developed various techniques for video game based learning, other e-learning modes, and most importantly to improve the creativity, IQ (Intelligence Quotient) and EQ (Emotional Quotient. The author's innovations encompass techniques that are age, demographics, language, profession and vocation target specific. His techniques also cover real time and offline analysis, real time and offline customization to the individual players. Dr. KRS Murthy is also an expert on big data techniques, particularly with special focus on real time, near real time and background analysis of video game players and teams performance tracking, performance improvement tracking, adaptive feedback for the video game to continuously keep the players and teams challenged. Metrics and measurement of the individual players and teams are vital to the game improvement for successive revisions, as well as new games and innovative breed of games development.

Video games require a variety of capabilities to include 3D graphics, console level gaming, as well as more intuitive interfaces, including voice and gesture recognition, image-processing and augmented reality, that will characterize future gaming features.

The ability of many current processor platforms, and those under development pipeline, to connect the CPU and GPU processors coherently and also off load much of graphics and image processing to GPU will enhance the capabilities of next-generation energy-efficient devices to deliver a user experience above and beyond what has been seen to date in the market. The programmable platforms that are essentially systems on a chip (SoC) are most suited and are already available in multiple devices like the smart phones, tablets and DTV solutions. The multi-core processor platforms have GPUs that provide 2D and 3D acceleration with performance scalable up to 1080p resolutions

Scalable from 1 to 4 cores the platforms enable a wide range of different use cases, from mobile user interfaces up to smart books, HDTV & mobile gaming. One single driver stack for all multi-core configurations simplifies application porting, system integration and maintenance. Multi-core scheduling and performance scaling is fully handled within the graphics systems, with no special considerations required from the application developer.

The author will also present ways to leverage on example platforms and its ecosystem off user and development partners in all aspects of the video game development and re-purposing of existing video games, so that a robust, cooperative and collaborative video game development is developed and nurtured for the benefit of the ecosystem partner companies and most importantly the learning community of all ages, professions and players of all demographics. In fact, the author's innovative proposal will make an integrated platform based video game player out of everyone from a little kid to the grand parents. The author's innovation is highly business focused, with ways to accelerate growth of platform companies, their ecosystem partners and create a new breed of companies at the intersection of computing, education and art.

Credits: My friend Prof. Paul Fullwood and I have partnered in some of the initial thoughts and a company leveraging on video games for education

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Even Strategy should be Big in Big Data with the Futurist Thoughts

Even Strategy should be Big in Big Data
with the Futurist Thoughts


Many business and technology professionals talk about "strategy"; they real do only tactics. Few, including veterans, do not yet digest the concept, and surely the implementation, of strategy.

This is not meant to be under estimating any industry veteran. Having built, grown and managed companies and business units of Fortune 50 and Fortune 500 companies, as well as the fastest growing companies in USA, I surely understand the industry pressure, and the pressures from investors and wall street. However, strategy for a corporation, big and small, is as important as breathing for a living being.

Strategy is not a "one word" concept, as many assume to be. Strategy has many facets. Strategic thinking needs you to have a closet full of thinking caps in your intellectual closet; the right one should be chosen from many in your closet, to best suit the occasion, to suit the corporation's size, type of industry, the portfolio of products and services, the country or geography, purpose at hand, the competitive environment, the economy and market.

To use another metaphor, strategy is just not a single stick you keep using to beat up in an occasion or situation; it is really like a large tree, with various branches, which you may think of as alternatives or options, based on the task at hand. Please also imagine this tree to adapt or morph as the industry and market driving factors change; imagine the tree to sprout new branches often.

Big Data is an impending phenomenon of unprecedented scale, growth and impact on the different beneficiaries: the technology, platform, tools and other products;  the hardware, software and systems companies; the various types of services companies; the new entrant companies; the entrepreneurial hot shots; the professionals, both the new kids on the block and "want to be" big data professionals; the consumers (C), businesses (B) and the governments (G).

Big Data demands Big Thinking; it demands different kind of thinking; it surely demands very fast thinking.

Most companies, big, small, start up and some even very large, and professionals know and feel that Big Data is a Big Opportunity, however, are not at all prepared to face the GIGANTIC Big Data wave that will surely overwhelm most of them. Get overwhelmed or get prepared to ride this gigantic wave.

Data will be an important currency in all aspects of our life and for the companies; the only difference this time around is that the data currency is measured in terra, peta, exa and zetta bytes and $ in millions and billions to digest this size of data explosion. The most important aspect of the business in the upcoming years and decades is how efficiently and economically you can convert the data currency to the $ currency.

The futurist in me says:

  • The data currency will have banks, trading, bartering and swaps.
  • The data currency will be local, regional, national and international, and in fact, tear the barriers, also "tunnel" though the barriers, of the current international money and gold currency walls.
  • Big Data owners, digesting technology and services companies, trainers, data traders and banks are all going to rule this now world of big data.
  • Whoever very quickly grabs the big data land (the big data land grabbers) will be kings and emperors of this new big data universe.
  • We all know what kings and emperors have done in history: They fight with each other, occupy others' territories and create bloodshed.
  • The kings and emperors fighting with each other, occupying each other and the blood shed is a metaphor for: "Big" Competition, Mergers and Acquisitions, Consolidations and Employee Lay-offs.
  • We as people, the universal citizens of the Big Data universe, generate data to contribute to the big data volumes, be targets and beneficiaries (the dichotomous roles) that the product and services companies "love", at the same time cry and scream about our privacy and security.
  • Talking about privacy and security, this is going to be a big business opportunity.
  • Even the state and national level elections, like the upcoming US presidential elections will be a hot bed of big data industry, with the presidential candidates carrying a mobile device to know what the people are thinking about them and accordingly give speeches and tweets with message bytes.
  • The media will use all this big data intelligence in their various broadcast and even exploiting the power of your mobile devices, which in turn modulate your "data creation behavior"; a new paradigm in "feedback loop" phenomenon of the big data.

I will be writing in detail about the astute practice of strategy and including the bag of tricks and techniques.

My purpose of this blog is to make all of realize that Big Data players need a paradigm shift in its strategy, to instill in your mind and also in your guts that the tactical thinking is sneaking into your heads, while you believe that you are thinking strategically.

Any of you may contact me for strategy. I am also a believer in tactics, that I have practiced in the past decades running companies.

KRS Murthy is moderated a Big Data panel on July 17, 2011, Santa Clara Convention Center, CA

KRS Murthy is moderated a Big Data panel on July 17, 2011, Tuesday From 3:15PM to 4PM in Santa Clara Convention Center, Santa Clara, CA

Big Data Track : Big Data Panel Discussion
Topic : Expert Perspectives from Diverse Practitioners
Speaker : Anjul Bhambhri (VP Big Data Products, IBM) 
Stefan Andreasen (CTO & Founder, Kapow Software )
Sumeet Singh (Director, Product Management, Yahoo)
Brian Johnson (Engineering Director, Search Science, eBay)
Bala Venkatrao (Director, Product Management, Cloudera )
KRS Murthy (CEO, I Cubed) - Panel Moderator
Room : Great America JX 

Murthy's Budgeting and Proposals Management

Murthy's Budgeting and Proposals Management

  1. I have managed many multi hundred million dollar companies and projects in my career. 
  2. The companies include: AT&T, General Electric, PNS Telecom, Systems and Applied Sciences and IMR Corporation.
  3. Budgeting was a routine annual and quarterly function for the different projects, business unit and the whole corporation.
  4. I led proposals to government agencies and customers for contracts and funding many times a year, to be included in the cost proposal section.
  5. Once funded, I managed financial control, conformance to regulations, financial effectiveness, operational efficiency, capacity & scaling for growth on projects and contracts, as well as the whole corporation.
  6. I preached and practiced financial metrics, charts and graphs through out my career. I also taught these subjects as a professor and lecturer.